James Fitzjames Stephen put the talent of guessing right as worth all our other talents:
In nearly all the important transactions of life, indeed in all transactions whatever which have relation to the future, we have to take a leap in the dark. . . . When we are to take any important resolution, to adopt a profession, to make an offer of marriage, to enter upon a speculation, to write a book - to do anything, in a word, which involves important consequences - we have to act for the best, and in nearly every case to act upon very imperfect evidence.
The one talent which is worth all other talents put together in human affairs is the talent of judging right upon imperfect materials, the talent if you please of guessing right. . . . All that can be said about it is, that to see things as they are, without exaggeration or passion, is essential to it; but how can we see things as they are? Simply by opening our eyes and looking with whatever power we may have. (Quoted from Liberty, Equality, Fraternity: And Three Brief Essays, University of Chicago Press.)
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For a brief biography of Sir James Fitzjames Stephen, click here.
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