H. T Gisborne, forester with the Northern Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, spoke at a 40-man Fire Boss School on May 5, 1947. From the archived document of his talk, we quote him on the nature and importance of experienced judgment, a concept having promise for making better decisions in all areas of life, from prescribing medical treatments to keeping a marriage together:
In fire control there are still a lot of basic factors not yet understood or not yet measured. And even when they are measured the basic facts must still be put together, weighed one against another, and a balanced decision then reached. Worse yet, sometimes that decision must then be modified or even seriously compromised on the basis of what you can do about it.
Experienced judgment is therefore the final determinant of what you actually do, both in planning to control a fire and out on the fire line where you try to put your plan into effect. But if you will stop to examine just what is meant by experienced judgment you will come back to the items I have listed above. For what is experienced judgment except opinion based on knowledge acquired by experience? If you have fought forest fires in every different fuel type, under all possible different kinds of weather, and if you have remembered exactly what happened in each of these combinations of conditions, your experienced judgment is probably very good. But if you have not fought all sizes of fires in all kinds of fuel types under all kinds of weather then your experience does not include knowledge of all the conditions.
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